China and India. China and India! CHINA AND INDIA!
For reality-based observers of the climate cult, drastic and expensive restructuring of energy consumption/production in developed nations, undertaken to escape “global boiling,” makes scant sense. After all, whatever reductions the affluent world makes in emissions of its “greenhouse gases” will be more than offset by China (population 1.416 billion) and India (population 1.409 billion).
Xi Jinping’s 2021 pledge to “strictly control coal-fired power generation projects” was moonshine. (“Since then, government permits for new coal power plants have soared.”) The dirtiest of fuels, an official told the Financial Times in November, “continues to play a key role in India’s economic growth and development.” (Earlier this month, a climate-change opportunist whined that the nation “expects to roughly double coal production … by 2030.”)
But as unarguably valid as the China-and-India critique is, it misses the part played by a third country: Ipenbeebee.
Never heard of it? Well, there’s a little cheating at play here. IPNBB is comprised of five countries, located on three continents. But with more than 1 billion residents, it’s already a major player in World War Carbon, and its power and influence will only grow in the decades ahead.
The populations of Indonesia (282 million), Pakistan (252 million), Nigeria (237 million), Brazil (220 million), and Bangladesh (169 million) have every right to enjoy the standard of living affordable, abundant, and reliable electricity, transportation fuels, and heating/cooling have provided to people in Saskatchewan, South Carolina, Scotland, Slovenia, and Singapore. And contrary to the delusional dreaming of eco-alarmists, expect coal, oil, and natural gas to make the dominant contribution to the five countries’ energy futures.
Let’s start with electricity. When their economies are fully developed, the good people of IPNBB won’t be as “wasteful” as Americans, who annually gorge on 12,994 kilowatt-hours. Their demand is likelier to fall somewhere close to Japan’s — i.e., about 40 percent less than those profligate Yankees. Still, Japanese-style power consumption will boost Indonesia’s electricity need by a factor of seven. Nigeria’s demand will increase 55 times.
Similar growth will occur in automobiles. Again, no nation “squanders” resources on personal mobility like the United States, where vehicle ownership, per 1,000 residents, is 998. So perhaps France’s figure of 668 is reasonable. The current numbers for IPNBB: Indonesia, 82; Pakistan, 29; Nigeria, 61; Brazil, 445; and Bangladesh, 27.
It matters not whether all those new cars are powered by gasoline, diesel, electricity, or hydrogen. A heckuva lot of energy will be needed to produce the necessary fuel. And don’t expect “renewables” to grab a big portion of the market. Intermittent and costly, wind and solar aren’t terribly popular in IPNBB. International Energy Agency data show that in 2020, “green” sources accounted for 0.08 percent of Bangladesh’s total energy supply. (The following year, Pakistan’s comparable share wasn’t much better: 0.28 percent.)
IPNBB’s total fertility rate, it’s worth noting, is above replacement level. At 2.9 (the average for the five counties), the metric can’t be considered high, but it’s well above the developed world’s — e.g., Australia (1.7), Belgium (1.6), Canada (1.4), Spain (1.2), South Korea (0.8). Barring major wars and/or a super-deadly pandemic, population loss won’t help eco-alarmists cut IPNBB’s thirst for energy.
Shifting to supply, IPNBB’s prominence in selling “fossil” fuels to the world is guaranteed to expand. Indonesia already rivals Australia as the world’s top exporter of coal. (In 2023, its production “was 775 million tonnes, up from 687 millions a year earlier and above the 695-million-tonne target.”) Brazil, The Wall Street Journal recently reported, is putting “ever more money behind oil production, tapping deep water reserves off the coast of Rio de Janeiro and eyeing potentially vast new deposits near the mouth of the Amazon river.” (Greenpeace is really angry. Bill Maher, call your office.) Nigeria, according to the CO2 Coalition’s Vijay Jayaraj, “is Africa’s largest oil producer and exporter, with resulting revenues contributing significantly to projects such as construction of roads and power plants, to social services and to overall GDP.” (The Dangote Petroleum Refinery — the Dark Continent’s biggest — “has commenced production of diesel and aviation fuel,” and promises to be “a game changer for our country.”)
When fighting the climate-hysteria rantings of a co-worker, online interlocutor, or your particularly ignorant brother-in-law, be sure to toss IPNBB into the mix. Why let China and India have all the fun?
But wait, there’s more. On deck: The nation of Empeeve. That’s Mexico, the Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Vietnam. Each has a population north of 100 million. They like smartphones in MPEEV. Air conditioning, too.
Well stated.
Follow the money. If petroleum is on its way out, why have Occidental Petroleum and Chevron recently purchased billions of dollars of assets in the Permian Basin. Why has Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway purchased 27 percent of Occidental Petroleum's stock?