What D.C. (Mostly) Does

Don't let deportations and tariffs distract you

MAGA Nation is tired, from all the “winning.”

Moonbat Nation is in catatonic shock.

The frenetic first few weeks of Trump 2.0 have both political tribes convinced that a fundamental transformation of the federal government is underway. Pro tip: Maintain a hefty supply of skepticism.

Yes, among other noteworthy actions, the new administration is targeting folks not legally authorized to be in the United States, implementing deeply unwise trade polices, waging war against the poison of Identity Politics, and battling the boondoggle that is foreign “aid.” Not trivial pursuits. But it’s important to put them in fiscal perspective.

The epoch of the Indian Wars, the Interstate Commerce Commission, dam-building, the Civilian Conservation Corps, peaceful nuclear explosions, and space shuttles has faded into the murky past. In the third decade of the 21st century, D.C. is little more than a revenue-reallocation machine that aims well over 80 percent of its lucre in four directions. Understand where the money goes, and it’s easy to grasp how little change actually occurs when the White House receives a fresh occupant.

Spending Priority No. 1 is healthcare. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in the 2024 fiscal year — which ended on September 30th — the combined cost of Medicare and Medicaid hit $1.488 trillion. No matter how many taxpayer dollars fedpols shovel toward doctors, hospitals, and pharmaceuticals, it’s never enough. An aging population, enhanced by profoundly self-destructive diet, exercise, and social-capital choices, has U.S. healthcare finances on an escape-velocity trajectory. Per capita, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation calculates, our expenditures are “almost twice the average of other wealthy countries.” Americans don’t expect to pay those bills themselves — why not pass them on to Uncle Sucker, as well as the state governments that provide 31 percent of Medicaid’s budget?

Spending Priority No. 2 is pensions. Well, the nationalized kind. Social Security ran up a $1.448 trillion tab in 2024. Here again, a citizenry laden with senior citizens imposes a bitter burden. And the destructive trend is undeniable. In a recent piece for The New York Times, Eugene Steuerle, of the Urban Institute and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, dropped some data AARP would rather suppress: “Under almost every president since 1980, 80 percent of the real growth in domestic spending has gone to Social Security and health care … . As a share of G.D.P., all other domestic outlays combined have declined.” A reckoning is scheduled to arrive, in the not-too-distant future. Social Security “will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2035,” while Medicare’s hospital fund is estimated to enter insolvency in 2036.

We’ll call Spending Priority No. 3 “external relations” — national defense and foreign policy. The Pentagon’s budget was $826 billion in 2024, up $56 billion from the year before. But don’t forget the “intelligence” community, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Department of State, and the nuclear-deterrent activities of the U.S. Department of Energy. Add it up, and the cost for our tertiary category exceeds $1 trillion. (Oversight? Pshaw. Julia Gledhill and William D. Hartung: “Americans would be hard-pressed to find members of Congress carefully scrutinizing … vast sums of national security spending, asking tough questions, or reining in Pentagon excess — despite the fact that this country is no longer fighting any major ground wars.”) And a final expense merits inclusion — $325 billion for the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Send American servicemen off to wage endless, unwinnable conflicts, and the legacy obligations metastasize. According to the CBO, the department’s budget “increased by $41 billion (or 14 percent)” in 2024, mostly due to greater costs “per person and veterans’ increased use of health care facilities.”

Spending Priority No. 4, our last stop on the tour, is the price for borrowing. According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, “the Treasury pays about $2.6 billion per day, on average, for interest,” but without a course correction, “that will rise to $4.9 billion per day in 2035.” CBO reports that in 2024, “Net Interest on the Public Debt” came to $949 billion, about half of last year’s ludicrously large deficit of $1.8 trillion. The national debt, which does not account for unfunded “entitlement” commitments (don’t ask), has crested $36.2 trillion, and the sum increases by $1 trillion every 100 days.

Sick folks, old folks, the military-industrial-intelligence-homeland-diplomacy complex, and debt service. The quartet comprises The Monster That Ate The Federal Budget. True under House Blue, true under House Red.

Elections do have consequences. It matters, who’s president. But The Swamp’s unsustainable, immutable, voter-backed addiction to spending matters more.