Those Other 'Migrants'

Big Government's refugee surge

His marriage is over. His twins have graduated from high school. And Adam Carolla is moving.

The podcaster, pundit, and comedian despises Gavin Newsom (“a narcissistic 10-cent head buffoon”) and can bear the crime, traffic, and homelessness no longer. He’s fleeing California, destination, at this point, to be determined.

Carolla has plenty of company. Outmigration from the state once universally viewed as idyllic is rampant. Wirepoints took a glimpse at the IRS’s data on taxpayer movement between 2021 and 2022, and found:

Florida, the nation’s usual winner, gained the most net people, 245,000, and the most net Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), $36 billion. Texas followed with a net gain of 181,000 people and $10.1 billion in AGI. North Carolina was in third with a gain of nearly 83,00 people and $4.6 billion in AGI.

In contrast, states like California, New York and Illinois once again experienced the nation’s biggest losses. California lost more people than any other state, with 307,000 net movers taking $23.8 billion to other states.

In 2021, California lost an Electoral College vote for the first time. While 2030 isn’t right around the corner, it’s all but certain that the not-so-Golden State’s power to pick the president will dwindle again after the next census. Ditto for Illinois. The Land of Lincoln “was one of only three states to lose population between 2010 and 2020,” 87 of its 102 counties “experienced population loss over the past year,” and the Chicago area has lost residents three years in a row. According to the state’s free-market think tank: “Illinois is losing residents on net to 40 states, including every neighboring state. The largest number of residents are being lost to Florida (19,099), Texas (12,259) and Indiana (9,196).” Father to the east, the Empire State lost a net “222,702 filers and dependents” between 2021 and 2022, with no-income-tax Florida the “leading destination for outbound New Yorkers.”

Lockdown lunacy, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board recently observed, “accelerated flight from … states with onerous taxes and a high cost of living.” The trend will have a hefty impact on future occupants of the White House. The last time a near-corpse president ran for reelection, the Northeast — New England’s six states plus New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — enjoyed 138 Electoral College votes. Forty years later, when the oldest president ever to run for reelection trounced his opponent, the region’s strength stood at 113. In 2024, it’s down to 94. That’s an eight-decade tumble of 31.8 percent. During the same period, the Electoral College votes wielded by the 11 “Confederacy” states rose from 127 to 164 — an increase of 29.1 percent. In the Southwest, the contiguous combination of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Nevada nearly doubled its presidential potency, from 17 to 33 Electoral College votes.

Deep-in-denial lefties bray that boundless “public investments” engender “a better place for everyone.” But millions of Americans aren’t buying the spin. They’re bugging out to states where the nonfederal “public” sector is relatively stingy. Combining expenditures at the state and local levels is a useful way to gauge the size of government. Census Bureau statistics show that in 2021, New York spent $20,544 per capita. California wasn’t far behind, at $18,942. Compare those breathtaking sums to Nevada ($10,802), Arizona ($10,507), Florida ($10,352), and Tennessee ($10,023).

Big Government, the path to prosperity? Not exactly. States with low taxes, reasonable regulations, and right-to-work laws are experiencing real, sustainable economic expansions. In California, the Legislative Analyst’s Office found evidence of the opposite:

Since the beginning of 2022, the state’s labor markets have grown modestly but shown some signs of weakness. A closer look at this period unveils a more worrisome trend: large and mounting private-sector job losses that have been offset by continued hiring in public sector (and publicly supported) fields. Since its post-pandemic peak in September 2022, California’s private sector has lost a net 154,000 jobs (1.2 percent) while the public sector has gained 361,000 jobs (7 percent).

Fortunately for Carolla, California has no “exit tax.” But he should skedaddle, pronto. A few on the left are beginning to concede that Americans “are increasingly moving to states with less burdensome tax regimes,” and that taxpayers “best equipped to migrate prove to be high-net-worth individuals and profitable closely held businesses.” That’s the assessment of Stetson University law professor Andrew Appleby, who advises legislators to enact a “carefully crafted state exit tax” to “promote social gain by enhancing distributional equity.”

Make your state unlivable, then gouge the folks who relocate to where they’re appreciated and safe. Blue-state America is a strange land.